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The Underlying Physics of IR Absorption in Atmospheric CO2 and Its Possible Effect On Climate

 

Plus

 

Unprecedented Global Warmings:  Past, Present, and Future

 

 

September 16, 2018

Ernst Wall

 

      

 

 

This web page was originally a Power Point presentation given at the October, 1988 meeting of the New England Section of the American Physical Society under the title “Underlying Physics of IR Absorption in Atmospheric CO2 and Its Effect On Climate”, Bulletin of the American Physical Society.  http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2008.NEF.B1.1

 

It was left in that form at so that it could, if desired, be broken up once again into a power point presentation.

 

 

Other physics models by this author are available at www.tachyonmodel.com.

 

 

Referenced Terms:

unprecedented global warming,  carbon dioxide,  CO2,  IR,  infra red,  atmosphere,  atmospheric,  spectra,  blackbody,  Stefan-boltzman,  temperature,  maunder minimum,  sun spot,  solar wind,  noaa,  heliosphere,   cosmic rays,  coal,  petroleum,  ice age,  glacier,  radiative transfer,  atmosphere,  svensmark,  mars,  physics,  ocean,  line width

 

 

 © Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved.  

 

 

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( Note that hyperlinks to various sections in this page are provided here.  Click on the highlighted text.)

·         The temperature rise across the Southern US has been 0 ( zero, null ) degrees since 1880

 

·         In contrast,  the temperature rise across the Northern US has been some 1.5 – 2.5 degrees C since 1880

o   This is significantly more than can be accounted for by CO2  known increases            

 

·         The US weather bureau has maintained temperate recording stations all across the US since the late 1870’s

o   The above temperatures were obtained from these data

o   These data are measurable to about 0.5 degrees C

 

·         The atmospheric CO2 load increased by approximately 50% between 1880 and the present time

o   These facts alone indicate CO2 is a minor player in any atmospheric warming

o   If CO2  were a major player

§  The temperature across the Southern US States should have increased

§  The temperature across the Northern US states should have increased only by the same amount

 

·         Mars’ atmosphere has some 45 times more  CO2  that the IR must penetrate than does the Earth

o   In spite of this, Mars’ diurnal temperature swing is some 50 degrees C as opposed to the Earth’s 10 degree C temperature change

§  This alone is a clear and obvious indicator  that CO2 is not a major contributor to the trapping heat in planetary atmosphere

o   This is based on NASA data that is freely available on the internet

 

·         We show that burning all known coal and petroleum reserves would increase the Earth’s atmospheric  CO2 load by about 54 % over where it is now

o   This would increase the global temperature by no more than 0.5 degree C, if that

§  Not enough to account for temperature change across Northern US

o   This physical analysis described below could be carried out by any junior level physics major who has had a course in modern physics

 

·         In this presentation we show that the above geographical US temperature difference would appear to be consistent with the Svensmark theory of cosmic ray induced global temperature changes than with CO2

o   NASA’s Voyager spacecraft's long term data show directly that cosmic ray intensity affected by solar wind as it varies during solar cycles

§  Solar cycles indicated by varying sunspot counts

o   Voyagers now exiting heliosphere and their cosmic-ray is increasing, showing that solar wind shields the Earth from cosmic-rays

o   Atmospheric Beryllium-10 is created by cosmic rays

o   Beryllium-10 is trapped in glacial ice

§  Ice core data indicate much more Beryllium-10 during cold periods than warm periods

 

·         In this presentation we utilize, for the most part, information freely available on the internet

o   We have made all efforts to outline information sources and methodologies so that anyone with a reasonable background can validate or disprove the analyses given here

§  This make it relatively easy for anyone who wishes to do his own analysis without having to access an extensive research library

o   We strongly urge anyone interested to gather his own facts and to do his own analysis to whatever extent his technical background and experience allow

§  Honest disagreement with the conclusions below are certainly to be expected and even welcomed

o   A  caveat:  You do have to be very careful of your sources of data

§  Some of it is self-serving fraud

§  Some of it is by well meaning but misguided individuals

 

·         We start the analysis with an on-line spectral line simulator to show that the 15 micron IR line’s intensity is completely saturated after penetrating the totality of the Earth’s atmosphere.

o   The 15 micron line is the only significant CO2 IR absorption line under the Earth’s blackbody radiation curve.

o   The SpectraCalc simulator is available to anyone from Gats, Inc. for some $26/month

 

·         The simulator shows that doubling the atmospheric CO2 would cause the saturated 15 micron line at 10 km to widen just slightly

o   This would cause, at most, a 2.5 degree C temperature change in the absence of atmospheric moisture

o   However, 2/3 of that region of the IR spectra (near the 15 micron line) is obscured by water vapor, giving about 0.9 degree C temperature increase if the atmospheric CO2 were doubled

 

·         Past global temperature and CO2  level changes show that temperature changes take place years before the CO2 level changes, not after

o   This is because the temperature changes cause the oceans  to boil off CO2 when the temperature increase

o   The oceans to reabsorb the CO2 when the temperature decreases

 

·        We see a tenuous link between sunspots and periods of drought in the US

 

·         The temperature of the Earth has never been constant

o   The glacial periods had temperature swings as high as some 12 degrees, far more that experience in geologically recent times

o   7000 years ago, it was as warm as it is now as indicted by recently uncovered stumps by Sphinx Glacier in Western Canada

o   The temperature during the time of the Roman Empire was as warm as it is now.

o   The extreme cold of the Dark Ages ( 530 AD – 900 AD) resulted in mass death from disease, famine, and hypothermia

o   The temperature during the Medieval Warming Period (1000 AD – 1300 AD, during the renaissance) was as warm is it is now

o   The extreme cold of the “Little Ice Age” in Northern Europe (1600s – 1700s) resulted in mass death from disease, famine, and hypothermia

o   The current unprecedented global warming:  The Lost Squadron

o   Future unprecedented warming and cooling

o    Possible future climate devastation:  Be afraid:  Be very afraid!

 

·         NOAA Atmospheric model data is provided at the very end as C++ data structures so the interested reader can integrate the atmospheric IR path using his own methodology

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Referenced Terms:

unprecedented global warming,  carbon dioxide,  CO2,  IR,  infra red,  atmosphere,  atmospheric,  spectra,  blackbody,  Stefan-boltzman,  temperature,  maunder minimum,  sun spot,  solar wind,  noaa,  heliosphere,   cosmic rays,  coal,  petroleum,  ice age,  glacier,  radiative transfer,  atmosphere,  svensmark,  mars,  physics,  ocean,  line width

 

 

 

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·         To use Gats, Inc's SpectraCalc, an internet absorption spectral simulator,  to perform a calculation of the atmospheric IR absorption using a recent atmospheric CO2 load and the IR absorption for double that CO2 load

o   The temperature change resulting from doubling the CO2 will provide a scaling factor to estimate the temperature changes caused by adding various other CO2 loads to the atmosphere

 

·         To compare the resulting temperature changes with past geological temperature changes, which are as much as 12 deg. C

 

·         To estimate the temperature change caused by burning all known petroleum and coal reserves

 

·         To discuss an alternative global warming model

 

·         To do this using readily available internet resources, where possible

 

(Note that this little simulator is for spectral lines only.  It is not a large, secretive,

governmental atmospheric weather simulator.  It can be rented by anyone for about

$26/month.  The physics below can be carried out by any junior level physics major.)

 

Referenced Terms:

unprecedented global warming,  carbon dioxide,  CO2,  IR,  infra red,  atmosphere,  atmospheric,  spectra,  blackbody,  Stefan-boltzman,  temperature,  maunder minimum,  sun spot,  solar wind,  noaa,  heliosphere,   cosmic rays,  coal,  petroleum,  ice age,  glacier,  radiative transfer,  atmosphere,  svensmark,  mars,  physics,  ocean,  line width

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

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·         Gats, Inc.’s SpectraCalc * utilizes the HITRAN data base,  a million plus line spectral database that is maintained by Harvard-Smithsonian in Cambridge, MA, for the Air Force and NASA. (It goes back to the 1960s.)

o   Available  on the internet for anyone

§  Charge is about $27/month

 

·         Note that the only line discussed here is the 15 micron line for reasons that will be discussed later

 

*  (http://www.spectralcalc.com/spectralcalc.php)

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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·         The Gats, Inc. on-line SpectraCalc spectral simulation system we will use in this study requires that:

o   We convert the IR absorption path length of the entire thickness of the atmosphere into a uniform density column of gas at standard temperature and pressure.

 

·         For this, we integrate the NOAA Standard Atmospheric pressure model of the Earth vertically to a height of over 100 km to determine the effective absorption distance that the IR must penetrate

 

·         We find that the length of this effective column of the Earth’s atmosphere is approximately 9 km at standard temperature and pressure

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

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·         Mars’ atmosphere is 95 % CO2 but its surface density is about 1%  of that of the Earth

 

·         We use NASA’s Martian atmospheric model determine the effective column of atmosphere that the IR must penetrate

o   Mars has 45 times more CO2 than the Earth that the IR must penetrate

o   This in spite of the very low atmospheric pressure

 

 

      © Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

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·         We manually measured the width of the 9 km 15 mu spectral line in doubling from 380 ppm to 760 ppm at 9 km.

·         The effective line width increase was 1.11

·         This value was cross checked against the ratios of the transadmittance value sequence of spectral charts for the 380 ppm and 760 ppm lines

·         The effective line width change converged on 1.10

·         The 380 ppm line goes from about 13 to 17 µ, giving a line width of about 4 µ

·         The broad, saturated spectral lines produced by the SpectraCalc for both cases are generally in line with NASA’s experimental data, as will be seen

·         Note that here, we are looking at the total absorption at 9 km as opposed to the details in between

·         This is a preliminary study, not a definitive, detailed, or scholarly treatise

 

      © Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

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© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Referenced Terms:

unprecedented global warming,  carbon dioxide,  CO2,  IR,  infra red,  atmosphere,  atmospheric,  spectra,  blackbody,  Stefan-boltzman,  temperature,  maunder minimum,  sun spot,  solar wind,  noaa,  heliosphere,   cosmic rays,  coal,  petroleum,  ice age,  glacier,  radiative transfer,  atmosphere,  svensmark,  mars,  physics,  ocean,  line width

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

 

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·         The following blackbody radiation curves with the CO2 lines superimposed on them were obtained from a C++ program

o   The temperature used for the recent 380 ppm CO2 load's curve was 15 deg. C based on NASA's mean temperature of the Earth

 

·         Note that the total integrated energy under the curve is equal to that of the Stefan-Boltzman equation (To be discussed)

 

·         The output data was plotted using MS Excel

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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      The energy radiated per square meter by a flat black surface is   E =  σT4 W/m2

      The  energy radiated into space must equal the solar energy falling on the Earth

 

         The Stefan-Boltzmann constant,  σ, is 5.670400 x 10-8 J s-1 m-2 K-4

 

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

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© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

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        A similar blackbody curve to the 380 ppm curve was produced for 760 ppm.

 

         Doubling the CO2 caused line width to increase slightly.

 

      This increased the total absorption of the blackbody radiation to increase from 21%  to 23 %

 

 

        Using Stefan-Boltzman with the above absorption differences, it was found that  doubling the Earth’s CO2 results in a 2.15 o C temperature  increase at most

 

        Doubling  the  CO2 will give an increase of probably about 1/3 that amount in the presence of water vapor, about  a 0.8 o C increase in the atmospheric temperature

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

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·         Bottom line:  The temperature changes associated with doubling the CO2 load will be used to calculate temperature changes for various atmospheric CO2 load changes

         It is assumed that temperature changes will be linear with respect to CO2 load changes

 

·         Based on a mean global temperature of 288 deg. K, the loss of all CO2 (assuming it is actually a warming agent) would cause a temperature drop of some 18 deg C

o   This based on numbers in blackbody radiation curve in above slides

o   It also ignores radiative transfer effects

o   See tables below

 

·         More important, however, the above is true only while the earth below is constantly providing radiative warmth to the atmosphere

o  If the  soil beneath the atmosphere were suddenly insulated from the atmosphere, the atmospheric temperature would likely collapse in seconds.

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

 

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·         Martian temperature measurements are obtained from various Mars landers

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Referenced Terms:

unprecedented global warming,  carbon dioxide,  CO2,  IR,  infra red,  atmosphere,  atmospheric,  spectra,  blackbody,  Stefan-boltzman,  temperature,  maunder minimum,  sun spot,  solar wind,  noaa,  heliosphere,   cosmic rays,  coal,  petroleum,  ice age,  glacier,  radiative transfer,  atmosphere,  svensmark,  mars,  physics,  ocean,  line width

 

 

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© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

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      Consider what happens when you open a can of ice cold coke

        Nothing (almost)!

 

        Consider what happens when you open a can of very warm coke

        It boils out all over your clothes!

 

        The reason is quite simple:  Cold coke dissolves more CO2 than  warm coke

 

        In fact, it is likely that you could hook up a pressure gauge to a bottle of coke and use it as a slow acting thermometer

       (I haven’t tried it yet for lack of facilities as well as time)

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

 

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© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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        Wikipedia direct Statement:  “Glacial ice core data indicates that rapid temperature rises precede CO2 level rises by some 400 – 600 years” *

 

        Considering all of this, we suggest here that the Earth’s atmospheric CO2 level can serve as a gigantic thermometer that indicates the mean temperature the surface of the oceans

        The oceans act like a gigantic can of coke that dissolves CO2

        This is aside from any possible increases due to man

 

* Wikipedia “Ice Core” page - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Referenced Terms:

unprecedented global warming,  carbon dioxide,  CO2,  IR,  infra red,  atmosphere,  atmospheric,  spectra,  blackbody,  Stefan-boltzman,  temperature,  maunder minimum,  sun spot,  solar wind,  noaa,  heliosphere,   cosmic rays,  coal,  petroleum,  ice age,  glacier,  radiative transfer,  atmosphere,  svensmark,  mars,  physics,  ocean,  line width

 

 

 

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        The world’s known petroleum reserves amount to some 1.0 trillion barrels  = 1.36 X 1014 kg. [1]

 

        The world’s known coal reserves amount to some 8.5 X 1014 kg. [2]

 

       The weight of the Earth’s atmosphere is 5.1 X 1018 kg. [3]

 

      The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is 392 ppm = 2.0 X 1015 kg

 

 

1.  Senatorial Web Site, Richard Lugar, IN - http://lugar.senate.gov/energy/security/reserves.cfm

2.  World Coal Assoc. - http://www.worldcoal.org/coal/where-is-coal-found/

3.  NASA Earth Fact Sheet - http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/earthfact.htm

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

 

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        The fractional increase in the atmospheric CO2 if all of the petroleum reserves were burned would be 0.069.

 

        Therefore, burning all of the world’s petroleum reserves would increase the atmospheric temperature by some 0.15 deg. C if no water vapor  is present

        Probably about  0.08 C in the presence of water vapor *

 

 

* Using the previous estimations of  2.15 deg. C (no water vapor) and 1.1 deg. C (water vapor)  temperature changes caused by doubling the CO2.

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

 

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         The fractional increase in the atmospheric CO2 if all of the coal were burned would be 0.42

 

         Therefore, burning all of the world’s coal would increase the atmospheric temperature by some 0.91 deg. C if no water vapor  is present, if that

         Probably about  0.47 C in the presence of water vapor, if that

 

         © Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

 

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© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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      US Weather Bureau established in 1870s

      Widespread reliable temperature readings from about 1880 are available

        CO2 level in 1880 approximately 295 ppm, and it increased to 396 ppm by 2011

      That is 50 % increase from 1880 to 2011

      Expected temperature rise due to CO2 to be about 0.47 deg. C, if that

      Based on prior calculation of possible temperature change from doubling Atmospheric CO2

 

 

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        We look at differences in diurnal temperature excursions for:

      Earth’s worldwide temperature excursion vs desert

      10 degrees vs 30 degrees C

      Earth’s worldwide temperature excursion vs Martian

      10 degrees vs 50 degrees C

        Differences in diurnal excrusions indicate planetary temperatures not really affected that much by CO2

      Water vapor appears to be the agent that holds the Earth’s heat in and moderates the diurnal temperature excursions

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Referenced Terms:

unprecedented global warming,  carbon dioxide,  CO2,  IR,  infra red,  atmosphere,  atmospheric,  spectra,  blackbody,  Stefan-boltzman,  temperature,  maunder minimum,  sun spot,  solar wind,  noaa,  heliosphere,   cosmic rays,  coal,  petroleum,  ice age,  glacier,  radiative transfer,  atmosphere,  svensmark,  mars,  physics,  ocean,  line width

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

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* Above graphs can be found at:  US Historical Climatology Network,    http:   //cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/ushcn.html

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

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* Above graphs can be found at:  US Historical Climatology Network,    http:   //cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/ushcn.html

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

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      Temperature increase across Southern US over last 130 years is zero within ability to measure

 

        Temperature across Northern US over last 130 years some 3 – 5 degrees F

      This is somewhat more than can be accounted for as a result of CO2 increase for that time period

 

      Temperatures shown here representative only

      Needs more data points

 

·         In any studies such as these, sites must be carefully selected to avoid man made hot spots such as cities

 

·         © Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

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      Based on these measurements,  any claims of temperature  trends that are less than one degree and that are based on direct measurements are likely bogus

 

·         Also, based on these measurements, any claims that measurements from a single geographical region represent global warming are bogus

o   That single measurement is a regional measurement only, not a global measurement

o   Multiple measurments from the North Pole to the Equator and to the Sourth Pole are required before it can be called global warming

o   Measurements from the the Americas, Asia, Australia the Mid East, Europe, and Africa are required before it can be called global warming

 

·          Any claim that CO2 is the cause of global warming should explain the differences in the Earth’s mean diurnal temperature excursions with those of the Sahara desert and Mars

o   If it does not, then that claim is bogus

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

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        Ideally, sites should be out in open fields away from highways and buildings

      Air conditioner outlets, busy roads will affect temperature

      Busy major intestate highways can be 5 – 10 degrees warmer at rush hour than the nearby countryside

        Cities are known heat islands and should definitely be avoided unless you have an ax to grind are trying to prove that we are warming far faster than we really are

      Such readings should be considered totally bogus

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

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      Atmosphere dynamics are extremely complicated

      The solar heating of the equator gives rise to vast rising columns of wet air with condensation that creates vast thunderstorms and uses very complex heat transfer mechanisms

      This causes generally north-south surface winds over a wet ocean

      These winds form circulation cells such as the Hadley Cell, the Ferrel Cell, and the Polar Cell

      Produces mixing of warm, wet tropical air with cold dry polar air

 

 

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      There are complex heat transfers between the ocean with its high specific heat and air with its relativel low specific heat

      A computer model of the global atmosphere is nothing short of a simulation of chaos

      A butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon would, in such a model would, in theory, affect the weather in Buffalo, NY

 

 

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      The mean temperature of the Earth is 10 deg. C.

      This is 283 deg. Kelvin (temperature above absolute zero)

      A change of 1 deg. C would have a ratio with 283 degrees of 1/283 = 0.35 %

 

 

       A chaotic computer model of the atmosphere can predict warming or cooling to within a degree C or so, or 0.35 to 0.7 percent?

       This author has spent over 7 years doing computer simulations and can state that:

      Computer models are not magical nor infallible

      They are no better than the input assumptions of the programmers nor any better than the programmers skills

      One would have to be extremely gullible to accept such a model at face value

      In short, “Gimme a break!!!”

 

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Referenced Terms:

unprecedented global warming,  carbon dioxide,  CO2,  IR,  infra red,  atmosphere,  atmospheric,  spectra,  blackbody,  Stefan-boltzman,  temperature,  maunder minimum,  sun spot,  solar wind,  noaa,  heliosphere,   cosmic rays,  coal,  petroleum,  ice age,  glacier,  radiative transfer,  atmosphere,  svensmark,  mars,  physics,  ocean,  line width

 

 

 

 

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·       Cosmic rays are ionizing radiation

o  Ionizing radiation creates clouds

§  Clouds cause cooling of the Earth below them

 

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·         Wilson cloud chamber invented by C. T. R Wilson in 1911.  In this chamber, air is saturated with water vapor

 

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·         When cosmic rays pass through the chamber, they ionize tracks in the air that cause the water to condense in these tracks as show here.

o   The tracks shown here are curved because of a magnetic field imposed on the chamber in order to determine the masses of the particles

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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        Sunspots at a minimum to no sunspots from 1645 to 1715

      This time is referred to as the “Maunder Minimum”

      It was also referred to as “The Little Ice Age”

      It was a period of extreme cold in Northern Europe

      Mass crop failures, famine, mass death by hypothermia and disease

 

 

        As sunspot count has steadily increased over the centuries, Earth has steadily warmed

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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      Cosmic rays produce nucleation sites for water droplet formation

      Wilson cloud chamber provides direct evidence for this

      More cosmic rays mean more low lying clouds

      Low lying clouds reflect sunlight back into space, causing cooling

      Earth’s surface becomes colder *

 

       Cosmic rays produce atmospheric Beryllium-10

      Beryllium-10 in glacial ice cores higher during Maunder Minimum than in recent times

 

 

 *    See Henrik Svensmark:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrik_Svensmark

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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        Above graph show s that during the Maunder minimum

      Atmopheric Be-10 twice as high as current levels.

      Sun spots minimal or zero as compared with 30 – 120 at any given current time

 

       Cosmogenic Be-10 is synthesized by cosmic ray spallation of oxygen and nitrogen, and is a measure of cosmic ray intensity

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

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      As solar activity increase, increasing solar wind seems to shield the Earth from cosmic rays, thus reducing atmospheric Be-10 production

 

      Net solar irradiance stable within parts/thousand for past 100 years

      Sunspots and attendant solar wind definitely not stable, however

 

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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        As the Voyagers begin to exit the heliosphere, their cosmic ray count is increasing, indicating that the heliosphere shields us from cosmic rays

      This indicates that as the Sun becomes more active and increases the density of the the helisosphere, it provides greater shielding from cosmic rays and thus less low level cloud cover

 

 

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         ”Previous work by the authors (Perko & Burlaga, 1987) showed a causal connection between the strength and occurrence of heliospheric magnetic-field compression regions and changes in high-energy cosmic-ray intensity, both measured by the same spacecraft as it traveled the outer heliosphere.”

  

         “Now, though, data from the Voyager 2 spacecraft are available out to mid-1988, and we can see this same model successfully track the movement of cosmic-ray flux from 1982 to the limit of available data.  Included in this track is the sudden drop in flux which started in late 1987 and which signals the beginning of the current cosmic-ray solar cycle.  The only parameters in the model changing with timer are the strength of the magnetic field (B) and the radius of the spacecraft, both taken directly from data.  This supports other work on spherically-symetrically solutions, which show that regions of enhanced turbulence are the predominant engine of the solar cycle modulation of galactic cosmic rays.”

 

J. A. Perko and L. F. Burlaga, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbeld, MD.

 

21st International Cosmic Ray Conference, Adelaide, Austrailia, January 6 – 19, 1990.  P 157.

 

 

 

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        The further South one is, the more parallel to the Earth’s  surface the magnetic field will be

      Cosmic rays will tend to be deflected away and cannot form low lying clouds that will cause cooling

 

        Further North, the magnetic field tends to be more vertical so that incoming cosmic rays are not deflected, and so they can form low lying clouds that will cool that region

      In periods of lower solar wind, more clouds can form so the north will be colder

      As the solar wind picks up, less clouds will form so the north will become warmer

 

MkSunspots

                   

 

 

         This author grew up on a farm in Southeast GA

        There was terrible drought in the early 1950s

        This author’s mother made the remark at the time that “I read that scientists think droughts are cause by sunspots”

        Here, we will take a brief look at that possibility as distinct from the general belief that the current drought is caused by CO2

 

       Astronomers have been monitoring sunspots since 1755

      Sunspot count goes from a typical high of a hundred or so to near zero in each cycle

      These cycles last, on average, about 11 years

      Each cycle is given a number starting with number 1 in 1755

      We are currently at cycle 24

 

 

 

 

 

      An even worse drought than the one in the 1950s, the great Dust Bowl,  began around 1933 and lasted until rain began to fall in 1939

      Sunspot cycle 17 started  around 1933, peak was around 1937 and ended in 1942

      Drought seems to have started on the increasing spot cycle and lasted most of the cycle

 

        In the early to mid 1950s, the afore mentioned drought,  covered the Southern US states, the Mid West states, and the Rocky Mountain states

      Sunspots peaked around 1949

      Sunspot minimum 1954

      Drought seemed to have occurred on the diminishing slope of cycle 18

 

        In the 1962 – 1966 time period,  severe drought in the North Eastern states from Virginia northward 

      Sunspots peaked in 1958

      Minimum in 1965

      Drought seemed to have occurred on the diminishing slope of cycle 19

 

 

 

 

 

        Drought of 1976 – 1977 hit various parts of the US

      Sunspots peaked in 1970

      Minimum in 1977

      Drought seems to have occurred on the downward slope of cycle 20

 

 

        Droughts of 1980s

      1980 -  1983, Northeast US, Corn Belt, Midwest states, Ohio Valley

      1985 – 1986, Southeastern US

      1988 – 1989,  drought spread from Mid-Atlantic to Midwest, Northern Great Plains, and Western US

      Worst since dust bowl of 1930s

      Finally ended 1990

      Sunspots peaked in 1980

      Minimum in 1987

      Drought seems to have occurred on the downward slope of cycle 21 and a little beyond

 

 

 

 

 

      Drought in 1993 and in 1999

      Sunspots peaked in 1991

      Minimum in 1997

      Drought seems to have started on the downward slope of cycle 22 and went a little beyond.

 

       Drought in 2002,  Colorado and Western states, continuing all decade in the Southeast and in Texas, 2008 – 2011, California

      Sunspot peak in 2000

      Minimum 2006

      Drought seems to have occurred on the downward slope of cycle of 23 but continued on beyond  the minimum.

 

 

 

 

 

 

        May be very tenuous correlation between sunspot cycles and droughts in any one area of the country

      Generally seems to start on the downward slope of the sunspot cycle.

      Dust bowl was an exception

      Based on Svensmark model, effect should be primarily a Northern US phenomena

      However, it affects all of US at one time or another

      It frequently affects different parts of the US at different times

        More careful work must be done in analyzing the rainfall in various parts of the country as a function of time before there is the possibility of anything more than a tenuous correlation between sunspots and drought

 

        Irregardless, droughts come and go

      This one, today, is no different

      This too, shall pass

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

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Referenced Terms:

unprecedented global warming,  carbon dioxide,  CO2,  IR,  infra red,  atmosphere,  atmospheric,  spectra,  blackbody,  Stefan-boltzman,  temperature,  maunder minimum,  sun spot,  solar wind,  noaa,  heliosphere,   cosmic rays,  coal,  petroleum,  ice age,  glacier,  radiative transfer,  atmosphere,  svensmark,  mars,  physics,  ocean,  line width

 


 

 

 

 

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      Above shows tree stumps uncovered by melting Sphinx glacier in Western Canada

      Radio carbon dating shows them to be some 7000 years old

      Pristine condition of the wood indicates they spent last 7000 years rooted where they fell, buried under ice

 

      Last ice age ended about 12 thousand years ago

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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        Some historians speculate that collapse of at least some past empires may have been caused by severe climate change

      Change may have been due to extreme warming

      Change may have been extreme cold

      Cold may be precipitated in some cases by decreased solar activity

      Cold may be precipitated in some cases by severe volcanic activity

      Change may be severe drought

 

        Akaadian Empire, founded by Sargon the Great, 2334 – 2156 BC, worlds first empire, might well have collapsed due to severe drought

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

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      Hyksos invasion of Egypt circa 1800 BC may have been precipitated by famine in the Mid East, invaders attracted by rich grain harvests of Egypt

      Nile river prevented Egypt from being affected by drought

 

       Massive eruption of volcano on Thera (island in the Agean ) circa 1645-1600 BC likely cause of Minoan civilization’s destruction

 

        Greek Dark Ages, 1200 – 800 BC, may have been exacerbated already fragile climate’s ability to sustain a viable society

        Biblical tale of Joseph’s brothers being sent to Egypt to buy grain may have been due to a drought in the Mid East

 

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

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      Melting alpine glaciers now exposing Roman villages

      Indicates glaciers formed after period of Roman Empire

 

       Artifacts from Roman era found in Alpine passes that were impassable until recently

      Indicates glaciers had melted during that time only to form later

      These later glaciers now melting again due to unprecidented global warming all over again

 

        Bottom Line:

      Roman Empire thrived in this period of unprecedented global warming

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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      Tree ring studies indicate an abrupt temperature drop in 536 AD, slight warming in 537 and 538, and another dramatic drop in 542.

      Probably was extremely cold, reduced sunlight, crop failure and wide spread famine.

      6 th century possibly driest of last 2000 years [1]

 

        Roman Empire‘s final collapse had occurred in 476 when Emperor Romulus Augustus surrendered to Germanic Odoacer

      Had already been in decline for years, however

 

        Learning nearly ceased in these privations, writing almost disappeared

      Catholic Church only source of  learning during this time.

 

1.      http://www.atmos.washington.edu/2001Q2/211/groupE/andy.html

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

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      Deaths probably in the hundreds of thousands, or even millions due to disease, famine, and hypothermia

 

       Eyewitness accounts of hazy skys where Sun was dim and weather was always cold [1, 2]

 

       Ice core data from this period shows sulfur spike, indicating massive volcanic eruption

      Likely Krakatoa, the arch villain of volcanoes

 

  1. http://gchbryant.tripod.com/Articles/darkages0999.htm
  2. http://www.pbs.org/wnet/secrets/previous_seasons/flash/catastrophe2frame.html

 

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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      Modern precedent for claiming Krakatoa the cause of the dark ages

       Krakatoa eruption of 1883 caused wide spread global cooling

       “Average global temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 degrees Celsius in the year following the eruption. Weather patterns continued to be chaotic for years and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888.” [1]

 

 

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krakato

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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      1816 was the “Year Without Summer” in Northern Hemisphere

      0.7 – 1.3 degree F temperature drop

      Widespread food shortages and poverty

      Many deaths from starvation

      Likely caused by major 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora in Dutch East Indies

 

       No reason at this time the preclude at least some cooling during this time due to reduced solar activity

      That would have exacerbated the problem

       This is, of course, speculation in the absence evidence.

 

       Bottom Line:

      In general, unprecedented cooling can be caused by volcanic activity or solar activity

      Cooling due to single volcanic erruption likely to last less than a decade

      Cooling due to solar changes likely to last many decades or centuries

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved.  

 

 

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      Medieval warm period lasted from about 950 to 1250 AD

      Artifacts from this era (also artifacts from era of Roman Empire) recently uncovered as alpine glaciers melt indicate that it was as at least as warm then as it is now, if not warmer

 

      Universities began some time around 1087

 

      Enough surplus food to support Crusades beginning in 1097

 

      Italian Renaissance began in Florence, Italy around 1300 AD.

      Likely that the warm period allowed surplus food to be grown so that scholars could be supported

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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      Modern Banking began in the 1300s

      The Medici bank of Florence was the most famous of these banks

      Medici family patron of arts

 

        Northern Renaissance was from 1400 – 1600 AD when learning spread to Northern Europe

      Guttenberg press invented around 1440 allowed inexpensive books to be printed so knowledge widely and quickly diseminated

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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      Warm enough for Vikings to settle in Greenland 

 

       Definite advantages to warm periods over cold periods

      Western civilization, as we know it, began during the Medieval Warm Period.

      It grew strong enough to survive the depravations of the Maunder Minimum that followed

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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        The Maunder Minimum, lasting from around 1645 – 1715, was a period in which there were few or even no observed sunspots.

 

        It was a period of extreme cold in Northern Europe

      It was known as “The Little Ice Age”

 

        Widespread crop failures and famine

      Widespread death by starvation

      May have been cannibalism by starving populations

 

      Children in story of Hansel & Gretle likely abandoned by parents unable to feed them

      The wicked witch who wanted to eat them was probably a starving neighbor

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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        Indoor temperatures of 10 deg. F in Holland (Fahrenheit had recently invented  the thermometer)

      Mean winter temperature in Holland today is  some 36 – 44 degrees F.

      Widespread death due to hypothermia

 

        Disease included typhus and dysentery

 

        Thames river in England froze for first time in history

      In Great Frost of 1683-84,  ice on Thames 11 inches thick

      Ice extended out to sea

      Shipping blocked

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

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      Frost Fairs held on Thames ice starting in 1608

 

        The Maunder Minimum (“The Little Ice Age”) was a period of extreme cold in Northern Europe, & possibly greater cloudiness and lots of ice, as indicated by paintings of the time [1]

      It also featured other such wonderful things as crop failures, famine, indoor temperatures of 10 deg. F (Fahrenheit had recently invented the thermometer), dysentary, typhus, and freezing to death [2, 3]

 

 

  1. Wikipedia, “Little Ice Age” - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
  2. The Brutal Cold of the Maunder Minimum, etc. -http://joannenova.com.au/2011/05/the-brutal-cold-of-the-maunder-minimum-and-the-great-irish-frost/
  3. The Maunder Minimum and the Variable Sun-Earth Connection – Soon & Yaskell (Google Books)

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

 

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      Viking settlelers in Greenland died off as a result of extreme cold and privation

 

       Last Thames Frost Fair held in 1814

 

       Prior to Maunder Minimum, English were wine drinkers and their wines competed with French wine, really irking the French

      Cold weather destroyed English vineyards causing them to come to their senses and start brewing beer

      Early English colonist were beer drinkers because of this

      This is reason Americans tend to be beer drinkers today rather than wine drinkers like the French

      Gave rise to Sam Adam’s most excellent brews

      Benjamin Franklin stated that the existence of beer was proof that God loved man and wanted him to be happy

      Trees with close tree rings and dense wood resulting from the extreme cold is thought to be part of the reason Stradivarious violins have the sound they have

      Something good, at least, seems to have come out of the Maunder Minimum

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

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      Plymouth colonists had intended to settle in Virgina, but:

      Entry in the diary of one of the Mayflower passengers:

      "We could not now take time for further search or consideration, our victuals being much spent, especially our beer, and it being now the 19th of December“

 

      Half the Plymouth colonists died that winter due to the harsh Maunder Minimum winter and inadequate shelter

 

        Since the Maunder Minimum,  sunspot count has been steadily increasing

      Earth has been steadily warming since that time

 

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

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        Note that now that England is getting warmer, the English are beginning to make wine again

      The English might stop making and drinking beer altogether

      They might become like the French

      Hard to imagine, but…

      While no one really expects that this will precipitate another war between France and England, you can never be sure

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 


 

 

 

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        The Lost Squadron consisted of  six P-38s and two B-17 bombers that made forced landing on Greenland Glacier in 1942. 

        They are now buried under 25 stories of ice that is caused by unprecedented global warming

      (This is a period of  unprecedented warming, isn’t it?  Isn’t that what polyticians  claim? )

                                                                                                                                                                     

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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      1000 years each from Roman Empire to Medieval Warming and from Medieval Warming to Present time

      Crudely, then, we speculate that there is about a 1000 year solar induced climate cycle

      Methane sequestered in the ocean beads and in the permafrost of the northern tundras during any warming period may be released with adverse consequences

      How much, if any heat would be retained by this methane is unknown at this time

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

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      Expect unprecedented cooling periods in 2500 AD and 3500 AD

      Wide spread famine and population decreases

      Probable cannibalism

      As the extra CO2 that is man made is redisolved into the oceans during the cooling cycles, the pH change may adversely affect sea life

 

 

       Expect unprecedented warming periods in 3000 AD and 4000 AD

      Wide spread prosperity, population explosions, and great human progress

         

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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        If the caldera beneath Yellowstone National Park ever blows,  it will utterly devastate the Western and Midwestern US

      Conditions in Northern Hemisphere may be as terrible as, or even worse than,  the conditions during the Dark Ages

      Especially true in the US

      Expect mass starvation, death from hypothermia, wide spread disease

      Some geologist feel that it is becoming restive and potentially very dangerous

         

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

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      Ash fallout from previous eruptions

 

 

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      Consider that as the Earth gets colder, atmospheric moisture would diminish as the moisture freezes out

      One would expect the diurnal temperature excursions to become greater due to decreased moisture content

 

        As it becomes warmer, atmospheric moisture would increase

      One would expect the diurnal temperature excursions to diminish due to greater moisture content

 

        These might have a positive feedback effect that would cause the speed of the changes to accelerate

      Under some conditions, recovery might be difficult or even impossible

 

 

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        Consider that as the Earth gets colder, the polar ice caps would expand

      This would increase the albedo of the poles and cause them to become even colder

 

        As it becomes warmer, the polar ice caps would contract

      This would diminish the albedo of the poles and cause them to become even warmer

 

        These might have a positive feedback effect that would cause the speed of the changes to accelerate

      Under some conditions, recover might become very difficult

 

 

 

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Referenced Terms:

unprecedented global warming,  carbon dioxide,  CO2,  IR,  infra red,  atmosphere,  atmospheric,  spectra,  blackbody,  Stefan-boltzman,  temperature,  maunder minimum,  sun spot,  solar wind,  noaa,  heliosphere,   cosmic rays,  coal,  petroleum,  ice age,  glacier,  radiative transfer,  atmosphere,  svensmark,  mars,  physics,  ocean,  line width

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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         Using an on-line spectral line simulator, doubling the amount of atmospheric CO2 would produce a 2.15 deg. C temperature change if no atmospheric moisture were present.

      When moisture is present it will be about 1.1 deg. C.

      This latter reference temperature can be used to calculate the atmospheric temperature change for any change in the atmospheric  CO2 load.

 

        Using the above reference temperature, the CO2 load resulting from burning all known coal and petroleum reserves would increase the atmospheric temperature by about  0.55 deg. C

 

       This is considerably less than past geological temperature changes which have been as high as 12 deg. C without any humans being present

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

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      Large Sahara diurnal temperature swings indicate water vapor is a very significant factor in maintaining Earth’s temperature

        Mars has 45 times more CO2  for the IR to penetrate than does Earth, but yet:

         Its diurnal temperature swings are greater than Earth’s probably because it has no moisture, which indicates CO2 has little effect

         Its temperature is less than its insolation indicates it should be

         Earth’s temperature is greater than its insolation indicates it should be probably because of atmospheric moisture

 

         Sandstorms on Mars are more effective at raising its atmospheric temperature than CO2, and possibly more effective even than water

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

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        Mars diurnal data and mean temperature error with respect to insolation based temperature are contradictory

 

      The difference between Earth’s global diurnal and desert diurnal temperatures indicate that moisture has a major impact on global temperatures

 

        The above data from both Mars and the Earth indicate that small amounts of CO2 or CO2 increases alone do not necessarily cause large planetary temperature increases

 

        It is also likely that the CO2 levels of the Earth’s atmosphere act, in effect, as a gigantic thermometer for the oceans rather than as a warming agent

      This is likely somewhat masked today, however, by man made CO2

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

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         Temperature data across the northern US indicate a temperature change of roughly 2 deg. C for the past 110 years

 

       Temperature data across the southern US indicate no measureable change in the mean temperature for the past 110 years

 

        The difference in the temperature changes in the northern and southern US suggest that any current atmospheric warming trends may be regional

 

       The scatter in the US temperature data ( 1 deg. C or more) make claims of temperature change measurements of less than 1 deg. C very questionable at best.

 

      The above Southern and Northern US temperature data are representative samples only and are for the purpose of obtaining preliminary information.  A more thorough accessment with more data sites (away from urban areas) need to be included.

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

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        No claims are made here that the Earth is not warming

         Based on melting of the Arctic ice cap and glacial melting, it appears that the northern hemisphere is warming

 

        It is well known that large advances and retreats of glaciers over the past two to three thousand years have occurred indicating that significant temperature changes have taken place without massive burning of fossil fuels my man

         Recent finds of Roman Empire era artifacts at the edge of retreating alpine glaciers indicate that the climate was at least as warm then as it is now *

 

 

* Climate Audit - http://climateaudit.org/2005/11/18/archaeological-finds-in-retreating-swiss-glacier

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

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        Fact that Mars is much colder than its insolation indicates it should be and Earth is slightly warmer than its insolation indicates it should be implies that water vapor (and sandstorms) are the source of planetary warmth and CO2 has an indefinite effect

 

       Mars’s wide diurnal temperature swing along with Earth’s wide desert diurnal swings (visa vie the overall diurnal swing) indicate that CO2 is not the major contributor to planetary warmth

 

 

      An alternate theory to man-made global warming is that increased solar activity, as indicated by increased sunspot counts, causes global warming by shielding the Earth from cosmic rays so as to reduce the cloud cover with its high albedo

 

      Given a choice of the Maunder Minimum with its famine, typhus, and freezing, one must ask if global warming is as bad as an ice age

      © Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

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      The Earth was went through unprecedented warming periods 1000 and 2000 years ago, and cooled considerably in between those times.

      Implies a cyclic behavior of global temperature

      Likely cause is changes in Solar wind as Sun’s sunspot activity changes.

 

       We project that 500 years from now, the Earth will cool, and then experience unprecedented warming 1000 years in the future.

 

        It is recommended that the interested reader should read Henrik Svensmark and  Nigel Calder's book, The Chilling Stars, for a discussion of how cosmic rays increase cloud cover and cool the Earth.

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

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         In no way should the previous comments be construed in any way to mean that I advocate unlimited burning of fossil fuels nor squandering irreplaceable natural resources

 

         At the same time, I have no absolutely desire to go back to the Maunder Minimum and its privation

 

      I, personally,  am a conservationist having grown up as a farmer.

      Most farmers are conservationists

      For example, when I was in the 9th grade, I won second state prize  in Georgia in a national conservation essay contest sponsored by the National Grange

      This contest was open to all, young and old alike

 

         I have not made, nor do I expect to make any money from this exercise.

         It was a fun exercise in response to a challenge that was issued to me by a former supervisor

         “You prove that global warming is real!”

         I have no vested interest in whether CO2 is the culprit in global warming or not

         I did the numbers and followed the path they led me to

 

         If you make your reputation and salary doing governmental atmospheric computer simulations, it is only human nature to have a vested interest in maintaining CO2 as the culprit in global warming

         That’s where the money and prestigue is

         Not very much you can do about cosmic rays and hence, not much profit to be made

 

         © Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

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Roger Sprenger is thanked for issuing the challenge to me to prove that CO2 was the cause of global warming.  (This author believed at the time that CO2 was the cause of global warming.)

 

Dr. Walter Niblack is thanked for pointing out that the glacial era temperature changes ( as shown on the included graphs) always preceded the CO2  spikes at the end of past ice ages.  He also pointed out the US Weather Bureau historical temperature trends, especially the one showing zero temperature increase across the Southern US

 

Steve Leonard is thanked for pointing out that the amount of known petroleum reserves are too small to cause a huge increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.  He also pointed out that ancient stumps were being uncovered by melting glaciers in Western US mountains

 

 

Steve Glass is thanked for pointing out some calculation errors.

 

Greg Vogel is thanked for pointing out the possibility that increased man made carbon dioxide could adversely affect sea life, as well as the possibility that sequestered methane might cause problems

 

Mike Furman’s comments about specific heats of soils were extremely useful and original

 

Dr. Steve Berggren and Dr. Dave Heberlein are thanked for their most helpful comments and criticisms

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

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We stated that the 15 micron spectral line was saturated after penetrating a 9 km column of atmosphere at standard temperature and pressue. (The equivalent of the entire atmosphere.)

 

Near the Earth’s surface, the line would not be saturated.  However, that might increase surface warming slightly which would cause increased turbulence (if it did have any effect, which is likely minimal ) so that cooler air from above would mix with the lower atmosphere

 

This would make the atmospheric computer models even more complicated and even less reliable

 

We did not calculate  the radiative transfer rates due to time constraints.  However, we note that as soon as a volume of atmosphere absorbs a photon, it will immediately reradiate that energy.  The net result will be a rapid flow of IR through the atmosphere out into space, delay times being of the order of less than a second.  (Recall the rapid temperature drops in the deserts where there is no moisture as well as on Mars, the temperature there being maintained only by the heat capacity of the sand.)

 

The Earth’s magnetic field near the equator is parallel to the Earth’s surface and will deflect incoming cosmic rays away from the lower atmosphere so that they will tend not to form low lying clouds that will reflect the Sun’s heat out into space.

 

Near the poles, the magnetic field tends to be more vertical with respect to the Earth’s surface.  Hence, cosmic rays can penetrate to the lower atmosphere and form low lying clouds that will reflect the Suns energy, causing the northern regions of the Earth to be cooler than they would otherwise be.

 

As the sun has become more active over the last several centuries,  the solar wind has begun to shield us from the cosmic rays so that the northern part of the us has become less cold.

 

The US Weather Bureau temperature differences in the Northern and Southern US indicate that the Svensmark global warming model is the correct model, not the CO2 warming model.

 

The recent exit of Voyager I from the heliosphere has shown an increased cosmic ray count.  This indicates that the solar wind tends to shield the Earth from cosmic rays, so that increasing solar activity with large sunspot counts tends to reduce low level cloud formation.

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

Referenced Terms:

unprecedented global warming,  carbon dioxide,  CO2,  IR,  infra red,  atmosphere,  atmospheric,  spectra,  blackbody,  Stefan-boltzman,  temperature,  maunder minimum,  sun spot,  solar wind,  noaa,  heliosphere,   cosmic rays,  coal,  petroleum,  ice age,  glacier,  radiative transfer,  atmosphere,  svensmark,  mars,  physics,  ocean,  line width

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

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The following data are provide for anyone wishing to verify the above calculations

 

/***************************************************************************

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Function Name:  noaa_atmosphere()

 

 

  Input Parameters:  Altitude in meters.

 

  Output Parameters   (via reference): 

            Density in kg/m^3.

            Pressure in Pascals.

            Temperature in degees Kelvin

 

 

 

 Tables Below From: G. P. Sutton and O. Biblarz, Rocket Propulsion

 Elements, (2001) John Wiley & Sons, p. 730.

 They give as a reference: U. S. Standard Atmosphere, National Oceanic and

 Atmospheric Administration, National Aeronautics and Space

 Administration, and U. S. Air FOrce, Washington, DC 1976 (NOAA-A-A

 T-1562).

 

Another Exciting Product of Wall's Mad Scientist's Laboratories.

 

Ernst Wall - September 28, 2007

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**************************************************************************/

 

double g0 = 9.80665;  //Gravitational constant in m/s^2.

double Ru = 8.31432E3;//Universal gas constant, N m/kmol K

double Ma  = 28.9644;  //Molar mass of Earth's air.

 

double std_atmosphere = 101325; // Pascals

int n;

double altitude1;

double altitude2;

 

double density1;

double density2;

double temperature1;

double temperature2;

double pressure1;

double pressure2;

 

 

 

#define SIZE 16

 

struct Atmosphere

{

            double pressure[SIZE];

            double temperature[SIZE];

            double density[SIZE];

            double height[SIZE];

} atmosphere;

           

               

                       

//  In meters

atmosphere.height[0] =   0;

atmosphere.height[1] = 1000;

atmosphere.height[2] = 3000;

atmosphere.height[3] = 5000;

atmosphere.height[4] = 10000;

atmosphere.height[5] = 25000;

atmosphere.height[6] = 50000;

atmosphere.height[7] = 75000;

atmosphere.height[8] = 100000;

atmosphere.height[9] = 130000;

atmosphere.height[10] = 160000;

atmosphere.height[11] = 200000;

atmosphere.height[12] = 300000;

atmosphere.height[13] = 400000;

atmosphere.height[14] = 600000;

atmosphere.height[15] = 1000000;

 

// Degrees K

atmosphere.temperature[0] =   288.15;

 

atmosphere.temperature[1] =   281.651;

atmosphere.temperature[2] =   268.65;

atmosphere.temperature[3] =   255.65;

atmosphere.temperature[4] =   223.252;

atmosphere.temperature[5] =   221.552;

atmosphere.temperature[6] =   270.65;

atmosphere.temperature[7] =   206.65;

atmosphere.temperature[8] =   195.08;

atmosphere.temperature[9] =   469.27;

atmosphere.temperature[10] =   696.29;

atmosphere.temperature[11] =   845.56;

atmosphere.temperature[12] =   976.01;

atmosphere.temperature[13] =   995.83;

atmosphere.temperature[14] =   999.85;

atmosphere.temperature[15] =   1000;

// Density in kg/m^3

 atmosphere.density[0] =    1.225;

 atmosphere.density[1] =    1.1117;

 atmosphere.density[2] =    9.09E-01;

 atmosphere.density[3] =    7.63E-01;

 atmosphere.density[4] =    4.14E-01;

 atmosphere.density[5] =    4.01E-02;

 atmosphere.density[6] =    1.03E-03;

 atmosphere.density[7] =    3.49E-05;

 atmosphere.density[8] =    5.60E-07;

 atmosphere.density[9] =    8.15E-09;

 atmosphere.density[10] =    1.23E-09;

 atmosphere.density[11] =    2.54E-10;

 atmosphere.density[12] =    1.92E-11;

 atmosphere.density[13] =    2.80E-12;

 atmosphere.density[14] =    2.14E-13;

 atmosphere.density[15] =    3.56E-15;

 

// Pressure in Pascals

 atmosphere.pressure[0] =   101325;

 atmosphere.pressure[1] =   8.99E+04;

 atmosphere.pressure[2] =   67805.67675;

 atmosphere.pressure[3] =   54019.39725;

 atmosphere.pressure[4] =   26497.50075;

 atmosphere.pressure[5] =   2549.13435;

 atmosphere.pressure[6] =   79.77823875;

 atmosphere.pressure[7] =   2.0678406;

 atmosphere.pressure[8] =   3.2011607E-2;

 atmosphere.pressure[9] =     1.250452E-3;

 atmosphere.pressure[10] =  3.03945E-4;

 atmosphere.pressure[11] =  8.47361E-05;

 atmosphere.pressure[12] =  8.77039E-06;

 atmosphere.pressure[13] =  1.45178E-06;

 atmosphere.pressure[14] =  8.213E-08;

 atmosphere.pressure[15] =  7.51376E-09;

               

               

 

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

 

 

© Ernst L. Wall, 2008.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

 

 

 

Referenced Terms:

unprecedented global warming,  carbon dioxide,  CO2,  IR,  infra red,  atmosphere,  atmospheric,  spectra,  blackbody,  Stefan-boltzman,  temperature,  maunder minimum,  sun spot,  solar wind,  noaa,  heliosphere,   cosmic rays,  coal,  petroleum,  ice age,  glacier,  radiative transfer,  atmosphere,  svensmark,  mars,  physics,  ocean,  line width